Free poker tool
Poker Variance Calculator
See your real expected win rate vs actual results
Sharkling's analytics separate the run-bad from the actual leaks, hand by hand, against a solver baseline.
See your real expected win rate vs actual results
Sharkling's analytics separate the run-bad from the actual leaks, hand by hand, against a solver baseline.
Frequently asked questions
Is my downswing normal?
Almost certainly. A 5 bb/100 winner with a standard deviation of 100 bb/100 is still behind after 100,000 hands about 6% of the time, and will hit a downswing of several buy-ins in essentially every career. Enter your numbers above to see the distribution for your win rate.
How many hands until I know my win rate?
More than you think. Confirming a 5 bb/100 win rate to 95% confidence takes roughly 154,000 hands. At 2.5 bb/100 it takes four times that — over 600,000.
What is a normal standard deviation in poker?
For online 6-max no-limit hold'em, 80-110 bb/100 is typical. Tight, nitty styles sit at the low end; loose aggressive play and heads-up games run higher.
What is risk of ruin?
The probability that you lose your entire bankroll at some point if you keep playing at this win rate and stake. It falls off very quickly as the bankroll grows, and it is exactly 100% for a break-even or losing player given enough time.